Day 19

Japan back from holiday. DOW had closed down 39 points previous session. Awaiting tonight’s US FOMC Policy Statement and the advanced GDP forecast. The FOMC is expected to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to 2 percent while the Commerce Department is forecast to report today that economic growth slowed to a 0.5 percent pace in the first quarter after a 0.6 percent expansion the previous three months.

Bought at 13875 after seeing NK dropped from high of 13990. After buying, NK continued to drop to low of 13795.

Update ( 3.50 pm ) :

FTSE up 1 point and S&P futures up 1.5. HK at 25670 after recovering from low of 25581. NK ( T+1 session )now traded at 13830.

Day 18

DOW ended down 20 points last session. Wrigley rose after Mars, backed by Buffett, agreed to acquire the company for 28 percent more than its last closing price. Ford rallied after investor Kerkorian said he bought 4.7 percent of the automaker and plans to buy more. Microsoft slumped for a second day on speculation it will have to increase its bid to acquire Yahoo.

Japan markets closed today. ( public holiday ) CME NK closed at 13970. Will watch Taiwan market today instead.

Day 17

DOW managed to close 42 points higher. S&P futures had initially turned negative after the weak consumer sentiment report and the DOW stayed down throughout most of the session on surging oil prices and a weak Microsoft’s outlook. Strength in financials and retailers sparked a recovery by late noon. CME NK (YEN) closed at 13915, meeting resistance at 14000.

 7.50am:

SGX NK traded at 13950. Between 13915 and 13960 during 1st 5 minutes. S&P futures down 1 point.

Update ( 12.20 pm ) :

Sold my last long position of 13690 at 13960 for profit of 270 points. High for the day is 14020.

After selling, NK declined quite substantially, together with HK and some regional markets. Snapshot of scenario above. Do not know reason for the fall at the time of writing this.

Will not be holding any overnight position today due to the coming Japanese holidays ( Showa Day – 29 April  and also next Mon and Tue )

Update ( 12.40 pm ) :

HK closed for lunch and NK continues to decline.

 Update ( 1 pm ) :

NK recovered slightly, traded at 13810. S&P futures down 2.5.

Day 16

DOW up 85 points after financial shares advanced. The dollar rallied and oil prices fell. Durable goods orders rose more than economists’ forecast while initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell. Stocks had dropped earlier after new-home sales plunged more than economists forecast. Microsoft report earnings that beat analysts’ forecast but earnings forecast for the next quarter below expectation. Share price declined in after hours trading.

Will sell 1 NK contract at 13655 or higher when market opens. Market may be dragged down by profit taking and also the Microsoft earnings forecast. S&P futures down 1.25 at the time of writing. CME NK traded at 13675.

Update ( 8 am ):

Sold NK long of 13590 at 13660 ( though queued at 13655 ) for profit of 70 points.  Just announced : Japan’s inflation at decade high, 1.2%.

Left with 1 more long position, in case NK rise further. Now at 13695, at the time of writing.

Update (10.50 am ) :

NK morning session closed at 13835. SGX NK closed lower at 13785, dragged down by HK and Shanghai.

HK crawling back from day low of 25525, now trading around 25617 (-1). S&P futures currently down 0.5 point.

11.35 am snapshot :

 

Update ( 12.30 pm  )  :

NK now 13900. Waiting to sell.

Update ( 5.30 pm ):

NK T+1 session traded to a high of 13905, now at 13890. S&P futures up 7.25. Will hold on to my long position since expect US to close higher today.

Day 15 – China/HK Surged

8.10 am :

S&P futures about 3 points lower after Apple earnings forecast lower than expectations. Bought NK at 13555 since expect regional markets to be positive due to expected surge in Shanghai and HK. China announced trading tax cuts overnight.

1045 am:

NK morning session closed at 13640. China S-shares such as YangZiJiang, China Energy and China HongXin dominated trading in SGX and rose quite substantially, delighting retail investors. ( Yangzijiang now $1.10, up 8 cents ). NK almost hit my sell order at 13675. Will sell when NK open..hopefully HK can sustain rally before NK opens.

 

Sold long position of 13555 at 13600 for profit of 45 points. Less than a minute later, went up to 13640, before dropping back slightly. Now left with long position of 13690.

Update:

Bought another NK at 13590. Felt that the jump by 40 points in just a few seconds as stated above could be due to good news tonight in the US. And NK kept sliding down after that. Could be big boys holding on for tomorrow.

2 long positions outstanding : 13590 and 13690.

Day 14

NK gained about 14 points about 40 minutes into trading despite DOW losing 104 points overnight.

Bought NK at 13485 as S&P futures is +1 and saw quite strong support at about 13480. Sold for profit of 50 points. WIll be on ‘buy’ mode if below 13470 and ’sell’ mode if above 13700. Now at 13570 ( 50 minutes into trading .. at the time of typing this ), about midway between my buy and sell modes. Will wait and see.

11.50 am

NK now 13710..high of 13740. S&P futures +3.5 and HK at 25210 (+212). Think NK may hit above 14000 this week. ( China S-shares trading in SGX moving up for second day. Heavy speculation by retail investors. Yangzijiang now $1.02. 2 days ago was at S$0.90 )

Day 13

7 am :

DOW down 24 points previous session. Worsening credit losses at Bank Of America and National City Corp. Texas Instruments posted earnings which are below estimates after US market closed. S & P futures currently down 3 points.

11.30 am :

HK leads regional markets off their day lows as it advances, though it ’s still down about 100 and S&P futures down 6. Doesn’t look sustainable as S&P down and FTSE expected to open lower later at 3 pm. WIll consider buying if NK below 13450 and sell existing long position if higher than 13800.

Day 12

DOW up 228 points last friday due to better than expected earnings report from Citigroup, Google and Caterpillar. CME NK (YEN) traded to a high of above 13800.

Update (7.50 am) :

S&P futures up 1. SGX NK trading between 13740 and 13770. Waiting for Osaka NK to open in 10 minutes.

Update ( 5pm ):

Bought NK at 13695 during T session earlier on. Now NK traded at 13690 at Osaka & SGX ( T+1 session ). S&P futures up 1.5. HK closed at 24618 ( up 386 but almost day low from high of 24930 ). More earnings report from US tonight.

 

Day 11

7am (pre-market) :

DOW up 1.22 previous session. Currently S&P futures up 2.5. Probably due to Google reporting better than expected earnings after US market closed. Citigroup to report earnings before US market open later today. CME NK(YEN) closed at 13455. 

Update (11.45 am) :

Suddenly regional markets decline steadily. HK down 53 ( Shanghai first session already closed ) and NK last done at 13350. Was about 13420 prior to this. Markets had already started to decline when Shanghai started trading earlier on. Will see how it turns out when Shanghai noon session opens at 1.30pm.

Update ( 1.50 pm ) :

NK surprisingly shot up to high of 13500 though Shanghai still down, bringing Taiwan futures up as well. Day low of NK at 13340. S&P futures up 0.5.

 

Day 10

DOW up 256 points last session. Better-than-forecast profits from Intel, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Ebay & IBM eased concern that the slowing economy is dragging down earnings. CME NK(YEN) closed at 13455.

  

Sold my last long position of 13380 at 13460 for profit of 80 points.

Update 1 ( 8.40 am ) :

S&P futures down 2.5 points. NK futures at 13460. Prior to this, NK hovering between 13430 and 13440. Looks like possibility of moving up. Waiting for HK and Shanghai to open.

Update 2 (2.45 pm) :

NK cash closed at 13398 ( +250 ). NK(mini) traded at 13445 ( end of T session ). S & P futures (-3.5). Waiting for FTSE to open at 3pm and NK (T+1) session at 3.30 pm.

Update 3 (9.20 pm) :

S&P futures down 9. NK futures at 13340. Looks like a down day for US.